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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 47

Carolina Panthers 13 – San Francisco 49ers 44

What Actually Happened

(6:32) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at CAR 41 for -12 yards (98-R.Blair III).

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.61 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.36 EP