Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 77

Carolina Panthers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(7:14) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to SF 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 38 for 11 yards (43-J.Kunaszyk; 28-R.Gaulden).

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.06 EP
67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model