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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 23

Carolina Panthers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:28) 4-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.70 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model