Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 91

Carolina Panthers 13 – San Francisco 49ers 44

(12:11) 5-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to SF 45, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 47 for 2 yards (39-R.Bonnafon).

The Three Options

GO -3.23 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.96 EP
67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 91, worth -5.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model