Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 67

Carolina Panthers 3 – San Francisco 49ers 21

(3:58) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to SF 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 37 for 10 yards (18-D.White).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.46 EP
73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model