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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2019-10-20 · 20:20 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

PHI
38.0%
DAL
62.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.149 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.207 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DAL defense: +0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • PHI offense: +0.015 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 24
–
DAL 27
Projected margin: DAL by 3 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

PHI

Nigel Bradham LB Out Ankle
DeSean Jackson WR Out Abdomen
Timmy Jernigan DT Out Foot
Avonte Maddox CB Out Concussion
Jason Peters T Out Knee
Darren Sproles RB Out Quadricep
Ronald Darby CB Questionable Hamstring

DAL

Anthony Brown CB Out Hamstring
Joe Looney C Questionable Back
Dorance Armstrong DE Questionable Neck
Randall Cobb WR Questionable Back
La'el Collins T Questionable Knee
Amari Cooper WR Questionable Ankle
Byron Jones CB Questionable Hamstring
Zack Martin G Questionable Back
Tyron Smith T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 10
–
DAL 37

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:17 TD DAL (10:17) (Shotgun) 10-T.Austin right end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – DAL 6
  • Q1 09:00 TD DAL (9:00) 21-E.Elliott left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – DAL 13
  • Q1 04:44 TD PHI (4:44) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 88-D.Goedert for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – DAL 14
  • Q2 06:45 TD DAL (6:45) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 89-B.Jarwin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – DAL 20
  • Q2 01:34 FG DAL (1:34) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. PHI 7 – DAL 24
  • Q2 00:04 FG DAL (:04) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 63 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. PHI 7 – DAL 27
  • Q3 05:02 FG PHI (5:02) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. PHI 10 – DAL 27
  • Q4 12:40 FG DAL (12:40) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. PHI 10 – DAL 30
  • Q4 09:40 TD DAL (9:40) 4-D.Prescott scrambles right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 10 – DAL 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 13 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 55%

    (:53) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 31 yards to PHI 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 35-B.Scott.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (13:40) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to DAL 29, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 10-T.Austin.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 30%

    (11:15) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 21-E.Elliott ran ob at PHI 42 for 9 yards (57-T.Edwards). Penalty on PHI-27-M.Jenkins, Defensive Holding, declined.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 15 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:59) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to DAL 14, Center-45-R.Lovato. 18-R.Cobb to DAL 20 for 6 yards (39-C.James; 49-A.Singleton). Eagles' Hassan Ridgeway has a knee injury; his return is questionable.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 97%

    (1:34) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:34) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to DAL 24, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-T.Austin pushed ob at DAL 30 for 6 yards (39-C.James).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 17 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 92%

    (5:02) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 96%

    (12:40) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 92%

    (6:52) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short middle to 16-M.Hollins (50-S.Lee). DAL-38-J.Heath was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (3:51) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to PHI 14, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 35-B.Scott.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (1:57) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott left tackle to PHI 47 for 13 yards (31-B.Jones, 23-D.Thompson). FUMBLES (31-B.Jones), and recovers at PHI 48.