4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 66

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Dallas Cowboys 37

What Actually Happened

(1:57) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott left tackle to PHI 47 for 13 yards (31-B.Jones, 23-D.Thompson). FUMBLES (31-B.Jones), and recovers at PHI 48.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.16 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 66, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 24, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model