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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 76

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(:34) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to DAL 24, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-T.Austin pushed ob at DAL 30 for 6 yards (39-C.James).

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.84 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 76, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 34, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model