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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 11

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(12:40) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.48 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 11, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP