Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 62

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(2:59) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to DAL 14, Center-45-R.Lovato. 18-R.Cobb to DAL 20 for 6 yards (39-C.James; 49-A.Singleton). Eagles' Hassan Ridgeway has a knee injury; his return is questionable.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.71 EP
71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 62, worth -3.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model