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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 19

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Dallas Cowboys 37

What Actually Happened

(6:52) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short middle to 16-M.Hollins (50-S.Lee). DAL-38-J.Heath was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.92 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 19, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 29, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model