Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- KC offense: +0.204 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- HOU offense: +0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.310 vs Deshaun Watson (HOU) +0.121 EPA/dropback
- KC defense: -0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 6
HOU
KC
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:53 TD KC (11:53) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-59-W.Mercilus, Defensive Offside, declined. HOU 0 – KC 6
- Q1 10:24 FG KC (10:24) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. HOU 0 – KC 10
- Q1 05:50 FG HOU (5:50) 7-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. HOU 3 – KC 10
- Q1 01:36 TD KC (1:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 26-Dam.Williams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 3 – KC 16
- Q2 12:22 TD HOU (12:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 25-D.Johnson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 9 – KC 17
- Q2 03:10 TD HOU (3:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-C.Hyde left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 15 – KC 17
- Q2 00:23 TD HOU (:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-21-B.Breeland, Defensive Holding, declined. HOU 22 – KC 17
- Q3 06:36 TD KC (6:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 23 – KC 23
- Q4 06:24 TD HOU (6:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 29 – KC 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 KC 4th & 15 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 88%
(10:24) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
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Q1 HOU 4th & 8 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 84%
(5:50) 7-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 21Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 90%
(4:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to KC 14 for 7 yards (35-C.Ward).
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Q2 KC 4th & 10 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 74%
(1:44) 7-H.Butker 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 56%
(:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right intended for 16-K.Coutee INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Thornhill at KC 0. Touchback (16-K.Coutee).
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Q3 HOU 4th & 5 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 81%
(11:00) 7-K.Fairbairn 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
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Q4 KC 4th & 5 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(14:57) 2-D.Colquitt punts 68 yards to HOU 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.
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Q4 KC 4th & 13 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(5:12) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to HOU 27, Center-41-J.Winchester. 14-D.Carter pushed ob at HOU 37 for 10 yards (23-A.Watts).
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Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 27 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.91 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 83%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins to KC 19 for 8 yards (32-T.Mathieu) [97-A.Okafor].