Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 75

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Houston Texans 23

(14:57) 2-D.Colquitt punts 68 yards to HOU 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.18 EP
50% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model