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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 26

Houston Texans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 7-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.52 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 36, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model