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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 28

Houston Texans 23 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 7-K.Fairbairn 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.37 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 28, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 38, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model