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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 13 at the 78

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Houston Texans 31

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to HOU 27, Center-41-J.Winchester. 14-D.Carter pushed ob at HOU 37 for 10 yards (23-A.Watts).

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.26 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 78, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 35, worth -1.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model