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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 40

Houston Texans 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right intended for 16-K.Coutee INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Thornhill at KC 0. Touchback (16-K.Coutee).

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.53 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model