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NYG Away

New York Giants

HC Pat Shurmur
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2019-09-08 · 16:25 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

NYG
48.7%
DAL
51.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: +0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.102 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NYG 24
–
DAL 25
Projected margin: DAL by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

NYG

Garrett Dickerson TE Out Quadricep
Darius Slayton WR Out Hamstring

DAL

Luke Gifford LB Out Ankle
Darian Thompson S Out Ankle
Donovan Wilson S Out Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 17
–
DAL 35

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:11 TD NYG (8:11) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 88-E.Engram for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – DAL 0
  • Q1 03:25 TD DAL (3:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 89-B.Jarwin for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – DAL 6
  • Q2 10:23 TD DAL (10:23) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 82-J.Witten for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – DAL 13
  • Q2 01:19 TD DAL (1:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 19-A.Cooper for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – DAL 20
  • Q3 11:03 FG NYG (11:03) (Field Goal formation) 2-A.Rosas 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 10 – DAL 21
  • Q3 09:53 TD DAL (9:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 18-R.Cobb for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-30-A.Hamilton, Illegal Contact, declined. NYG 10 – DAL 27
  • Q3 01:18 TD DAL (1:18) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott left tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 10 – DAL 34
  • Q4 02:54 TD NYG (2:54) (No Huddle) 22-W.Gallman Jr up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 16 – DAL 35

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 42%

    (12:21) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 37 yards to NYG 9, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 21-J.Peppers.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 11 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 44%

    (:25) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to DAL 7, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:04) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to DAL 17, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 47%

    (:09) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete deep left (38-J.Heath).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 8 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 57%

    (13:30) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 18-B.Fowler ran ob at DAL 29 for 11 yards.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 9 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (11:03) (Field Goal formation) 2-A.Rosas 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (5:24) 10-E.Manning sacked at DAL 9 for -2 yards (sack split by 90-D.Lawrence and 55-L.Vander Esch). FUMBLES (90-D.Lawrence) [90-D.Lawrence], RECOVERED by DAL-90-D.Lawrence at DAL 11. 90-D.Lawrence to DAL 11 for no gain (10-E.Manning).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 9 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:49) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to DAL 19, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 10-T.Austin. PENALTY on NYG-17-C.Core, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 19.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 47%

    (10:51) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 34 yards to NYG 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 21-J.Peppers.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:01) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to DAL 38, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 10-T.Austin.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 15 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:21) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to NYG 23, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 21-J.Peppers ran ob at NYG 25 for 2 yards.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 84 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to NYG 34, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 21-J.Peppers to NYG 39 for 5 yards (35-K.Frazier; 48-J.Thomas).