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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 46

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:21) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 37 yards to NYG 9, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 21-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.51 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 13, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model