4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 44

New York Giants 7 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(:09) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete deep left (38-J.Heath).

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +1.91 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP