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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 45

New York Giants 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(:25) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to DAL 7, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.33 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model