Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 7

New York Giants 10 – Dallas Cowboys 28

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 10-E.Manning sacked at DAL 9 for -2 yards (sack split by 90-D.Lawrence and 55-L.Vander Esch). FUMBLES (90-D.Lawrence) [90-D.Lawrence], RECOVERED by DAL-90-D.Lawrence at DAL 11. 90-D.Lawrence to DAL 11 for no gain (10-E.Manning).

The Three Options

KICK +1.78 EP

98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP

PUNT -0.18 EP

Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model