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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 10

New York Giants 7 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(11:03) (Field Goal formation) 2-A.Rosas 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 10, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model