Win Probability
Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- QB edge to LAC: Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.192 vs Jacoby Brissett (IND) -0.078 EPA/dropback
- IND offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- LAC defense: -0.033 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
- IND defense: -0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →
Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 1
IND
LAC
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 03:00 TD LAC (3:00) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – LAC 6
- Q2 10:06 TD IND (10:06) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 13-T.Hilton for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – LAC 7
- Q2 06:06 TD LAC (6:06) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 13-K.Allen for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – LAC 13
- Q2 01:06 FG LAC (1:06) 1-T.Long 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-5-T.Taylor. IND 6 – LAC 17
- Q3 11:19 FG IND (11:19) 4-A.Vinatieri 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 9 – LAC 17
- Q3 08:38 TD LAC (8:38) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 9 – LAC 23
- Q3 07:51 TD IND (7:51) 25-M.Mack left tackle for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 15 – LAC 24
- Q4 00:48 TD IND (:48) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 13-T.Hilton for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. IND 22 – LAC 24
- Q5 05:05 TD LAC (5:05) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 24 – LAC 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 LAC 4th & 12 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(12:56) 1-T.Long punts 54 yards to IND 9, Center-45-C.Mazza. 80-C.Rogers to IND 14 for 5 yards (32-N.Adderley).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 IND 4th & 18 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(9:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to LAC 32, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 IND 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(4:30) 8-R.Sanchez punts 20 yards to IND 46, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-46-L.Rhodes.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 88%
(1:06) 1-T.Long 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-5-T.Taylor.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 82%
(11:19) 4-A.Vinatieri 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LAC 4th & 11 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(4:12) 1-T.Long punts 44 yards to IND 10, Center-45-C.Mazza, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EPp(convert) 72%
(:48) 8-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to LAC 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 20-D.King MUFFS catch, touched at LAC 30, RECOVERED by IND-30-G.Odum at LAC 27. 30-G.Odum to LAC 27 for no gain (27-J.Watkins).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%
(13:32) 4-A.Vinatieri 29 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 49 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 27%
(3:34) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 17-D.Funchess pushed ob at LAC 41 for 8 yards (28-B.Facyson).
See the full breakdown →
