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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 11

Indianapolis Colts 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 24

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 4-A.Vinatieri 29 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.79 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model