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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 74

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 8-R.Sanchez punts 20 yards to IND 46, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-46-L.Rhodes.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.32 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model