4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 49

Indianapolis Colts 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 24

What Actually Happened

(3:34) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 17-D.Funchess pushed ob at LAC 41 for 8 yards (28-B.Facyson).

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.14 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model