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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 18 at the 81

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to LAC 32, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.21 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.54 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 81, worth -5.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 38, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model