Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 63

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

(12:56) 1-T.Long punts 54 yards to IND 9, Center-45-C.Mazza. 80-C.Rogers to IND 14 for 5 yards (32-N.Adderley).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.27 EP
69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 63, worth -3.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model