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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
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LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2018-12-30 · 16:25 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.5 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

SF
36.0%
LA
64.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • LA defense: +0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.061 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • QB edge to LA: Jared Goff (LA) +0.134 vs Nick Mullens (SF) +0.121 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

SF 22
–
LA 27
Projected margin: LA by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

SF

Matt Breida RB Out Ankle
Marquise Goodwin WR Out Calf
Dante Pettis WR Out Knee
Garrett Celek TE Out Concussion
Tarvarius Moore CB Questionable Shoulder

LA

Todd Gurley RB Out Knee
Lamarcus Joyner S Out Ankle
Ethan Westbrooks DT Questionable Illness
Justin Davis RB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 32
–
LA 48

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 31 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:03 TD LA (12:03) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 12-B.Cooks for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – LA 6
  • Q1 10:46 TD LA (10:46) 35-C.Anderson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – LA 13
  • Q1 02:16 FG SF (2:16) 9-R.Gould 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 3 – LA 14
  • Q2 12:45 TD LA (12:45) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right intended for 13-R.James INTERCEPTED by 58-C.Littleton at SF 19. 58-C.Littleton for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 3 – LA 20
  • Q2 06:09 TD LA (6:09) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 12-B.Cooks for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 3 – LA 27
  • Q2 02:10 TD SF (2:10) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short left to 13-R.James for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 9 – LA 28
  • Q2 00:03 FG LA (:03) 4-G.Zuerlein 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. SF 10 – LA 31
  • Q3 12:28 TD LA (12:28) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 83-J.Reynolds for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 10 – LA 37
  • Q3 08:28 TD SF (8:28) 76-G.Gilliam reported in as eligible. 46-A.Morris up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 16 – LA 38
  • Q3 03:05 TD LA (3:05) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 83-J.Reynolds for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 17 – LA 44
  • Q4 11:49 FG LA (11:49) 4-G.Zuerlein 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. SF 17 – LA 48
  • Q4 07:02 TD SF (7:02) 4-N.Mullens pass short left to 84-K.Bourne for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-23-N.Robey, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. SF 23 – LA 48
  • Q4 02:30 TD SF (2:30) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 30 – LA 48

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 4 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 73%

    (7:43) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 85-G.Kittle to LA 20 for 12 yards (21-A.Talib; 43-J.Johnson).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (4:47) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to SF 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds. PENALTY on LA-41-M.Christian, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at SF 25.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 96%

    (2:16) 9-R.Gould 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 27%

    (13:52) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to SF 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-59-M.Kiser.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (11:23) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to LA 22, Center-40-C.Holba. 19-J.Natson MUFFS catch, touched at LA 22, and recovers at LA 19. 19-J.Natson to LA 14 for -5 yards (53-M.Nzeocha).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 96%

    (:03) 4-G.Zuerlein 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 13 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 71%

    (11:49) 4-G.Zuerlein 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 47 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 36%

    (2:43) 42-J.Kelly left end to LA 49 for -4 yards (38-A.Exum, 98-R.Blair).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 19 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (:32) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to SF 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.