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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 33

Los Angeles Rams 45 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(11:49) 4-G.Zuerlein 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.53 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model