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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(11:23) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to LA 22, Center-40-C.Holba. 19-J.Natson MUFFS catch, touched at LA 22, and recovers at LA 19. 19-J.Natson to LA 14 for -5 yards (53-M.Nzeocha).

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 66, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 24, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP