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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 32

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(7:43) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 85-G.Kittle to LA 20 for 12 yards (21-A.Talib; 43-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.05 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 32, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 42, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model