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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 10

Los Angeles Rams 28 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(:03) 4-G.Zuerlein 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +3.10 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 10, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model