4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
Sunday 2018-12-30 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 52.0

Win Probability

ATL
49.0%
TB
51.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Jameis Winston (TB) +0.118 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.169 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

ATL 23
–
TB 24
Projected margin: TB by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

ATL

Wes Schweitzer C Out Back

TB

DeSean Jackson WR Doubtful Achilles
Carl Nassib DE Doubtful Shoulder
Devante Bond LB Questionable Illness
Jason Pierre-Paul DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 34
–
TB 32

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:53 TD TB (3:53) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – TB 6
  • Q2 08:29 FG TB (8:29) 5-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. ATL 0 – TB 10
  • Q2 00:51 TD TB (:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 12-C.Godwin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – TB 16
  • Q2 00:24 TD ATL (:24) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 11-J.Jones for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – TB 17
  • Q3 08:55 TD ATL (8:55) (Shotgun) 12-M.Sanu pass short right to 2-M.Ryan for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – TB 17
  • Q3 06:43 FG TB (6:43) 5-C.Santos 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. ATL 14 – TB 20
  • Q3 02:04 FG ATL (2:04) 3-M.Bryant 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 17 – TB 20
  • Q3 00:50 TD ATL (:50) 26-T.Coleman right tackle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 23 – TB 20
  • Q4 10:57 TD ATL (10:57) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 18-C.Ridley for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 30 – TB 20
  • Q4 08:15 TD TB (8:15) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 31 – TB 26
  • Q4 05:17 TD TB (5:17) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 12-C.Godwin for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 31 – TB 32
  • Q4 00:04 FG ATL (:04) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 34 – TB 32

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:13) 9-B.Anger punts 59 yards to ATL 8, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 24 for 16 yards (89-G.Sanborn; 32-J.Rodgers).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 28%

    (10:24) 5-M.Bosher punts 43 yards to TB 7, Center-46-J.Condo, out of bounds.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (2:12) 5-M.Bosher punts 49 yards to TB 21, Center-46-J.Condo, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (14:19) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to ATL 13, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (12:50) 5-M.Bosher punts 40 yards to TB 39, Center-46-J.Condo. 10-A.Humphries MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 40. 10-A.Humphries ran ob at TB 47 for 7 yards (83-R.Gage).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 92%

    (8:29) 5-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (3:08) 9-B.Anger punts 58 yards to ATL 18, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 30 for 12 yards (89-G.Sanborn).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:55) 5-M.Bosher punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Condo, Touchback. PENALTY on ATL-46-J.Condo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 20.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 4 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 82%

    (6:43) 5-C.Santos 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 74%

    (2:04) 3-M.Bryant 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (14:57) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to ATL 25, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 13 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 91%

    (:04) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.