4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 31

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 3-M.Bryant 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.29 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model