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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 76

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 9-B.Anger punts 58 yards to ATL 18, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 30 for 12 yards (89-G.Sanborn).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.27 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 76, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 34, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model