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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 54

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(14:19) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to ATL 13, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.85 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 54, worth -2.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 16, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP