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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 19

Atlanta Falcons 31 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32

What Actually Happened

(:04) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +1.72 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 19, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model