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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 79

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:50) 5-M.Bosher punts 40 yards to TB 39, Center-46-J.Condo. 10-A.Humphries MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 40. 10-A.Humphries ran ob at TB 47 for 7 yards (83-R.Gage).

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.70 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 36, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP