Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- IND offense: +0.171 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- IND defense: -0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- Andrew Luck (IND): +0.165 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- NYG offense: +0.021 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 16
NYG
IND
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:16 TD NYG (8:16) 68-B.Mihalik reported in as eligible. 26-S.Barkley left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – IND 0
- Q1 01:49 TD NYG (1:49) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 82-S.Simonson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – IND 0
- Q2 04:12 TD IND (4:12) 21-N.Hines up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 14 – IND 6
- Q2 01:15 FG NYG (1:15) 2-A.Rosas 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 17 – IND 7
- Q3 07:42 TD IND (7:42) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 15-D.Inman for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 17 – IND 13
- Q3 03:46 TD NYG (3:46) (No Huddle) 10-E.Manning left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 23 – IND 14
- Q3 00:36 TD IND (:36) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 24 – IND 20
- Q4 09:24 FG NYG (9:24) 2-A.Rosas 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 27 – IND 21
- Q4 00:59 TD IND (:59) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 80-C.Rogers for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 27 – IND 27
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 57%
(14:16) 2-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to NYG 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 80-J.Davis to NYG 25 for no gain (27-N.Hairston, 52-N.Goode).
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Q1 IND 4th & 11 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(6:22) 2-R.Sanchez punts 63 yards to NYG 13, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-46-L.Rhodes.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(11:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to IND 24, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-C.Rogers to IND 22 for -2 yards (57-N.Stupar).
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Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 89%
(1:15) 2-A.Rosas 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 34%
(:18) 2-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to NYG 4, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-27-N.Hairston.
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Q3 NYG 4th & 4 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EPp(convert) 47%
(11:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to IND 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
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Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 9Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%
(9:24) 2-A.Rosas 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 39Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 59%
(6:41) 2-R.Sanchez punts 35 yards to NYG 4, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-28-C.Milton.
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Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 94 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(3:53) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to IND 42, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-C.Rogers to IND 47 for 5 yards (51-Z.DeOssie, 12-C.Latimer).