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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 22

New York Giants 14 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 2-A.Rosas 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +3.79 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 32, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model