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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 75

New York Giants 14 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(11:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to IND 24, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-C.Rogers to IND 22 for -2 yards (57-N.Stupar).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.29 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 75, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 32, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model