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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 49

Indianapolis Colts 7 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(:18) 2-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to NYG 4, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-27-N.Hairston.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.05 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP