Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 94

New York Giants 27 – Indianapolis Colts 21

(3:53) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to IND 42, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-C.Rogers to IND 47 for 5 yards (51-Z.DeOssie, 12-C.Latimer).

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.29 EP
60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 94, worth -5.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model