4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 68

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 2-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to NYG 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 80-J.Davis to NYG 25 for no gain (27-N.Hairston, 52-N.Goode).

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 68, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 26, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP