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Denver Broncos

6-9 HC Vance Joseph
@
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Oakland Raiders

4-11 HC Jon Gruden
Monday 2018-12-24 · 20:15 ET Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

DEN
55.4%
OAK
44.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • LV defense: +0.142 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Case Keenum (DEN): -0.021 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DEN 22 15–29
–
OAK 18 11–25
Projected margin: DEN by 4 Projected total: 40

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 16

DEN

Brendan Langley CB Out Concussion
Shane Ray LB Questionable Illness
Matt LaCosse TE Questionable Ankle

OAK

Maurice Hurst DT Questionable Ankle
Gareon Conley CB Questionable Concussion
Daryl Worley CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 14
–
OAK 27

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:35 TD LV (10:35) 3-C.Wadman punts 65 yards to LV 1, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 17-D.Harris for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. DEN 0 – OAK 6
  • Q2 08:01 TD LV (8:01) 28-D.Martin right tackle for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – OAK 13
  • Q2 00:23 FG LV (:23) 8-D.Carlson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend. DEN 0 – OAK 17
  • Q3 04:40 TD DEN (4:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 17-D.Hamilton for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – OAK 17
  • Q4 12:21 TD LV (12:21) (Shotgun) 30-J.Richard up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – OAK 23
  • Q4 07:40 TD DEN (7:40) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – OAK 24
  • Q4 04:42 FG LV (4:42) 8-D.Carlson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend. DEN 14 – OAK 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 12 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:35) 3-C.Wadman punts 65 yards to LV 1, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 17-D.Harris for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DEN 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 25%

    (8:34) 3-C.Wadman punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LV 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:39) 5-J.Townsend punts 64 yards to DEN 21, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-83-D.Waller.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (3:12) 3-C.Wadman punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:28) 5-J.Townsend punts 37 yards to DEN 37, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-R.Cracraft.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (:52) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum to DEN 40 for -6 yards (50-N.Morrow). FUMBLES (50-N.Morrow), recovered by DEN-30-P.Lindsay at DEN 42. 30-P.Lindsay ran ob at LV 47 for 11 yards (25-E.Harris).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 32%

    (13:39) 3-C.Wadman punts 34 yards to LV 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (4:30) 3-C.Wadman punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 7 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 82%

    (:23) 8-D.Carlson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 21%

    (12:15) 5-J.Townsend punts 34 yards to DEN 16, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-R.Cracraft.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DEN 4th & 12 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:36) 3-C.Wadman punts 50 yards to LV 25, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 17-D.Harris to LV 32 for 7 yards (47-J.Jewell, 43-J.Jones).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (8:18) 5-J.Townsend punts 43 yards to DEN 18, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-R.Cracraft.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:55) 5-J.Townsend punts 47 yards to DEN 12, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-R.Cracraft.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 6 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 78%

    (4:42) 8-D.Carlson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 19 at the 91 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.60 EP
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:51) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep middle intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 25-E.Harris at DEN 39. 25-E.Harris to DEN 18 for 21 yards (72-G.Bolles).

    See the full breakdown →