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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 54

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 3-C.Wadman punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.66 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 54, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP