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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 50

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(12:15) 5-J.Townsend punts 34 yards to DEN 16, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-R.Cracraft.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.10 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 50, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.76 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP