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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 25

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(:23) 8-D.Carlson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.35 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 35, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model